It was eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or the reason for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six games, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
